What About Result And Expected Winner? Punjab Election 2017


Punjab continue to be on edge and the outlook remains fierce as the Punjab is witnessing the trio contest between the ruling party Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance, congress in opposition and a newly entered party Aam Aadmi Party AAP And In Assembly elections here is full factual breakdown in the state. Punjab votes today for first and one and only phase of legislative assembly election to decide the bitterly fight between the trio of SAD-BJP combination, congress and AAP.

Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) are quite confident that are going to hit the hattrick change in Punjab by breaking all the previous records. In previous elections held in 2012, the majority of seats being won by the currently ruling party Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party and Parkash Singh badal become the Chief Minister of Punjab for the second time which ever happened in Punjab elections history that a party is ruling successively for the second time.

In Punjab Akalis consider themselves as the principal representatives of Sikh community since 1920, when this party come into existence as a Special task force team of shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee that includes highest number of Sikh religious persons. In 2012 the BADAL political family hold strong grip on villages and won votes for SAD-BJP Alliance. They won 42 out of total 62 seats in villages and won almost one half of the seats from semi urban area which is 32 in number despite of all the strong anti-incumbency. In 2017 this SAD-BJP Alliance confident to hit trio as still two- third of the state population continues to live in village area which plays major role in the victory of SAD-BJP in 2012 . Urban areas in Punjab barely comprises of only 17 out of 117 assembly seats of state.

A jat sikh, resident of Ludhiana district said, “pind bich than log badal sahib nu hi pasand krde n” as all villagers think every party leader is corrupt and for that reason it is better to vote for a member who is from their community and advocates for their “khalsa panth” and give benefit to them through various social schemes.

The biggest reason for the success of SAD in 2012 is that the Badal Government opened up the state coffers which is closed from more than 10 years in the past. Badal Government initiated various state sponsorship schemes mainly benefited the poor, dalits and farmers of state during the ruling period of party before 2012 election. The opposition party says the Badal’s are using the same strategy for the assembly election 2017. They have promised to provide free school bags to poor girls, low interest rate loan for women entrepreneur, Rs.100 crore scholarship  fund for Dalit’s 4,000 modern equipped gymnasium for youth of Punjab and all these scheme is to blow out the crowd from ASP and congress campaign.

Before 2012, State had the history of one by one SAD-BJP Alliance and congress as their ruling party. But the problem arises when a new party Aam Aadmi Party surprisingly arises in 2014 and won 4 out of the 13 seats by gaining about 33 percent votes. Again the status of AAP is a big threat to congress votes. Either AAP wins or lose in both the cases the congress party will serve a big jerk.

Former union minister and Congress leader admit it that the Aam Aadmi Party is making dent in anti incumbency votes otherwise all his votes would be in our favour. If AAP will able to get at least 15 to 20 percent of total votes it is sure that congress will lose this election. It is the major advantage to SAD-BJP party.

In urban areas voters are confused between congress and AAP. As AAP has lost its initial momentum, including the youth which seems to be inclined towards this party, A businessman from Punjab most populated city J.P. talwar believes. And party also have the confidence that they got largest vote of 32 percent from Dalits vote bank.

Dera sacha sauda announced full support for SAD-BJP which  play a key role in 2017 punjab elections. His followers covers the major presence of 27 different segments mainly from malwa region which comprises of 69 assembly seats and there are more than 35 lakh voters and 70 percent out of which belongs to Malwa region. According to the current situation 15 percent of vote will make a huge difference in the polling result. In 2012 SAD and congress got 42.1 and 40 percent votes respectively and the SAD won as a whole. Despite of all these With an eye on the Dalit vote which mainly comprises of Ravidassias and Valmikis in Nawanshahr and Jalandhar, Kejriwal had declared to appoint a dalit deputy chief minister of he won the election and given a chance to work in state. This statement also cuts down his votes besides of hug strength of public in railies.

According to the author  this assembly election is overall a open fight between congress and SAD-BJP Alliance as AAP lost its moral high ground value with the support of youth of state with title UDTA PUNJAB. And after the demonetization kejriwal sliding down statement with other leader on ban issues  also affected the vote bank. But SAD and congress support Narendra Modi. AAP alone will not be able to build government in Punjab but yes it greatly effect the congress votes and from all these consequences SAD seems to win the 2017 elections.  It’s also a fact the most of the voters from urban area are in a favour to bring the change in Punjab and support Aam Aadmi party. But the 10 years development, brotherhood policies and Aman shanti policy of SAD-BJP still has the support from most of the constituency assembly. It is also a fact that SAD-BJP Alliance contest from most of the urban seats but it’s strength still continue in rural and semi-urban area.


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