A lot depend on the mood swings of Uttar Pradesh voters and even a small change in their mind is able to tilt the scale of party candidates, going by the poll data in recent year election.
As the state is going through the razor Sharp contest among Samajwadi party and congress combination, Bharatiya Janata party, and BSP and a small change in votes share towards these parties will translate into a huge shift in the number of seats to make the electoral parties or alliance.
As we look back on data of assembly and lok Sabha election we found in 2007 BSP won just over 30 percent votes , SP a little over at 26 percent, BJP at 17 percent and congress is at 8.5 percent. But after five years SP garnered three more percentage points and translated into a windfall for party with 403 members. UP assembly shot up from 97 to 224 which is best ever to put the party filly in saddle with thumping majority.
BSP’s votes fall by 4.5 percent in 2012 as compared to 2007 but the loss was immense in terms of seats as the party tally nosedived from 206 to 80. In 2012, the BJP had won only 11 of the 73 seats that will vote on Saturday. The Bahujan Samaj Party and SP had won 24 seats each, Rashtriya Lok Dal had won nine and Congress five.
In 2009 lok Sabha elections BSP won total of 20 seats out of 80 seats in UP with a vote share of 27.42 percent on the other hand congress won 21 seats with the vote share of 18.25 percent, and BJP won 10 seats with 17.25 percent of votes shares and more than all SP won 23 seats and won by 23.26 percent of votes.
A small mood swing can lead to a huge seat swing among these political parties. Samajwadi Party leader and UP minister Rajendra Choudhary said we will perform better than in 2012. He said the members of the minority community are likely to vote for a candidate who is in a position to defeat the BJP and we don’t think that their vote is getting divided this community will willingly vote for SP congress alliance.
Pradeep Mathur, Congress MLA from Mathura,”BSP is just for nominal appearance.” Majority of voters are with us and we are going to win 40 seats.
BJP leader Sanjeev Balyan admitted that the situation was not good for the party as it was in 2014, when the BJP had led in over 65 of 73 assembly segments but the most important thing is that BJP is is in fight from western UP with majority of jats voters and all jats are with BJP. We fielded 18 Jat candidates and this will leads to cut only RLD votes.
Peoples are expecting change with the alliance of the Samajwadi Party joining hands with the Congress also the two parties are looking to improve their performance.