The election results of Punjab assembly have a lot at stake for all the parties. Congress is fighting Punjab elections to win their very first election without any alliance to strong its pillars again, especially after the shocking defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Whereas the BJP-SAD alliance wants to win these elections on their development agenda and good works they have done at least that’s what they believe in. And the newbie entry to the Punjab elections, Aam Aadmi Party, comes with a hope in Punjab to make their territory big and take some step to become a National Party like Congress and BJP. This triangular fight created a great hype for the elections of Punjab. It is not easy to say at all that which party is going to win the elections, but I can show you some of the things that I have observed about these elections.
I will show you my Analysis through points to make it easy for all of you to understand the position of political parties in Punjab and the main issues of this beautiful Indian State.
- The issue of Drugs
If you think that Drug issue is just the Media hype, then you are absolutely wrong. We are not trying to say that the state is full of drugs or it has no drugs at all, but Drugs have become the major issue of the Punjab. The political parties like AAP or even Congress left no occasion in criticizing the present Government SAD-BJP for not handling the Drug issue in the state.
In the rural areas of Punjab, we found that the issue of Drugs is wider than of the urban areas. One thing is sure that the Drug issue is definitely going to impact the present government very badly. This issue already had created the bad image of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Bharatiya Janata Party in the state.
- AAP’s magic in Malwa
There are three regions in Punjab, Malwa, Majha and Doaba, and Malwa is the biggest region in Punjab. With 69 seats in Malwa of the 117-seat assembly state, it is going to decide the fate of the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab. We can tell you one thing that the AAP is going to perform great in Malwa, but the question is how well.
If the AAP makes a Delhi-style clean sweep, then they will form the government in Punjab very easily. But if the Congress gave a tough fight to the AAP, then for this newbie Party, it would be very important to win some good seats from the Majha and Doaba region too, where it’s not as strong as Majha. So, we can say that Majha is ultimately going to decide the fate of the AAP in Punjab.
- Badals are going to perform worse in these elections
The CM of Punjab, Prakash Singh Badal, has always maintained his image as a great, intelligent and a very mature and well-mannered man and he is still doing great with his position. But the grave charges of corruption, poor law, drug mafia and much more made the party very weak.
We can tell you one thing according to our observation that SAD is going to be third in this triangular race. Yes, they have lost their roots and it is going to be a bad case for the party in these elections. SAD always performs great in the rural areas, but this time AAP is going to eat their base vote very effortlessly. Although, deputy CM Sukhbir Singh Badal, does some development works in the state that needs to be appreciated but it’s quite late. The story aside, the Tourist plaza at the Golden Temple is just incredible.
- The public loves Captain Amarinder Singh
In spite of some corruption charges and being detached from the public and enjoying the life like a Maharaja, which he is, indeed, the Captain’s image is the best for the CM at least for this election. Captain Amarinder Singh is the one and only wall that is stopping AAP from a clean sweep and saving the Congress party from their internal fights.
We all know that Captain Amarinder is not an ace speaker like Navjot Singh Sidhu or Bhagwant Mann, but he always stands strongly on the tough and foremost issues of the Sikh community firmly. It is one of the big reasons why he has earned the goodwill from the people of Punjab. We have observed that he’s the first choice for the CM face of Punjab of probably every second person in the state.
- Navjot Singh Sidhu’s charisma is very limited
There is no leader in Punjab who can beat through speaking. Sidhu is definitely an ace speaker. It will be wrong to say that Sidhu played any impressive role in changing the results of Punjab for the Congress. There is no doubt in that the congress enjoyed his entrance to the party, but it will not impact the results of the state assembly at all. He worked as a great crowd puller for the Congress party and it may help the party in swinging few seats, but he’s definitely not bringing any revolution to the party. But he enjoys a great fan following all across the Punjab, especially in Amritsar. Sidhu is going to win his seat (Amritsar East) with a huge margin.
- ‘Jhaadu’ is the new love among the rural people
The voters of the rural areas in Punjab are in just love with the AAP’s symbol ‘Jhaadu’, which means Broom. We have asked many of the people in rural areas randomly that whom you have voted in this Punjab election, and all of them said ‘Jhaadu’. Without even knowing the CM Candidate or hardly anything about the party, the people in the rural areas are just with the support of the ‘Jhaadu’ unconditionally.
After the unconditional love for ‘Jhaadu’, the people of rural areas are mesmerized with the AAP’s ace speaker-politician and a former comedian, Bhagwant Mann. We will not be surprised to see Bhagwant Mann as the CM of the Punjab if AAP manages to pull off a win in Punjab.
- The time of introspection for BJP
Like SAD, we are going to see the worst defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party too. After the results of this state assembly election, BJP should introspect and understand what they are wrong with themselves in Punjab. They have been in coalition with SAD, which the common people of the state do not want at all. I have asked many of the people in the state that which party you want to vote and mostly every second person said that we will go BJP if they will leave their partner SAD. BJP should spend time with their volunteers and start working to improve their roots in the state as it will benefit them in fighting the elections without any alliance next time.
- Desecration of Guru Granth Sahib
The incidents of desecration of Guru Granth Sahib occurred all across the state in the last quarter of 2015. The people of Punjab outraged the SAD-BJP alliance for not handling the situations and stopping the radicals from doing it all over again and again. This issue made the Sikhs vote base of SAD-BJP alliance against them as the sacrilege of Guru Granth Sahib happened in a series of incidents again.
This issue is definitely going to impact SAD in the elections very badly, and the results are going to clearly show this. Both AAP and Congress tried to appeal the people that SAD is behind all the dirty controversy. The SAD failed to win the faith of the public like they had before. So, this issue has played an important role in the Punjab election.
- Kejriwal is a Messiah for Poor people
It cannot be denied that Kejriwal is the one who played a vital role in making an entry for the AAP in the assembly election. The time came into Punjab when the party was down sliding badly, but the master of doing magic in Politics, Arvind Kejriwal, saved the party from getting drowned.
From the numerous rallies in the state to his speeches, Kejriwal knows very well how to pull the crowd. Now, AAP is the leading party of Punjab at least in the rural areas. There are many chances that AAP could touch the magic number 59 (out of 117) and forms their government in the Punjab. And we just can’t deny that the Kejriwal factor played an important role in this election.
Coming to an end and considering all the factors, it looks like that AAP has the maximum chances of winning the Punjab elections because of unconditional rural and youth support, a hope of change and the hatred against the previous political parties like SAD-BJP and Congress. It looks like that Congress may become number 2 party or even win the elections, but only if AAP fails to convert the supporters into the winning seats. Congress has an advantage of favorable CM face Captain Amarinder Singh. The SAD-BJP is out of race in this assembly election, but you never know anything can happen. They will not be purely out of the race as they have maintained their base vote bank, which is always going to vote for them. But will that base vote bank able to convert into the winning seats or not is only 11th March will tell. The result of Punjab election will definitely make an enormous impact in the Indian Politics.