When we talk about the recent series of elections in MP and Rajasthan, it is taking place in Mizoram as well as Telangana, but why MP and Rajasthan along with Chhatisgarh matter the most?
Chhatisgarh, is very well known to one and all that Raman Singh gave the cleanest years when it comes to the levels of Maoist insurgency and development, and benefit schemes reaching the tribals (who are trying to preserve their rights on their lands) has been outstanding, therefore Congress or Munda+Jogi formula will definitely fail.
Rajasthan has a record of swapping governments between Congress and BJP, and Vasundhara Raje has been the lady that has given the state of Rajasthan real development.
Talking about MP, it is also a state having a record of swapping governments, choosing from the only two famous national parties, the BJP and the Congress.
The only difference in these two states and the rest going to polls is that both of the states are ruled by the BJP. The state of Madhya Pradesh has given Shivraj Singh Chouhan the leadership on three perpetual occasions, while the state of Rajasthan has gone from Ashok Gehlot, INC to Vasundhara Raje, BJP.
It is a facade of the dreamer, where any ruler may be judged as perfect, or imperfect, yet the outcome of the polls will clearly bring out the best picture. All the opinion polls conducted by ABP, Lokniti and others predict a hung house in Rajasthan, while in MP, they give the greater majority to Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
There are issues, that have been addressed by the current governments and there are promises made by both the warring camps. the promises, are indeed hypothetical in nature, robbing the voters of the discretion to choose between freebies and actual issues that surround the welfare of the states concerned. Congress has doled out freebies in its manifestos and so has the BJP, the main issue at the focus is the unplanned offers that burden the exchequer and provide the state as well the Centre with an added baggage on the money of the taxpayer.
The opinion polls say that Rajasthan will go to Congress, which may not happen, because the over-all GSDP of Rajasthan has been infused with new energy since Raje came to power, as has been seen by the data prepared by the State statistics. Also when we talk about the Bhamshah Scheme in MP, there exists a huge number of farmers who have benefited from the scheme while there are many who have suffered at the hands of the authorities.
Also, these two states happen to be the best performers and receivers of various schemes of the Central government centering around Narendra Modi, and also the famous irrigation schemes prepared by Raje government in Rajasthan, has increased average land under cultivation in the state.
This assumes significance when there is nothing in the form of mismanagement though Vyapam in MP and Rajasthan has been scam-free all these years.
The assessments also need to include the impact of the polarisation in the society being played at the hands of the BJP and Congress. Polarisation received a new push when all the leaders from political parties to religious groups put their weight behind selecting a date for the resurrection of the Ram Mandir.
It is fact that needs to be noted that the Congress governments have played the minority majoritarianism card over and over again, and have indeed estranged Hindus from their voter base, yet there are occasions when they have been seen appeasing the Hindus, this nullifies the stain on the BJP of fanning communal sentiments, yet this emotion plays a strong role in deciding the rulers.
Rajasthan and MP therefore are rightly the BJP’s 2019 test-match where they will land up defeating the Congress in all probability because the wide voter-base has been touched by Modi-nomics and they have seen positive results along-side development. Congress does not stand any chance of winning the elections until, there is larger social engineering involved, which defies common wisdom. The vote is about Narendra Modi, and he will certainly in all probability win the elections through his zeal for Chauhan and Raje.